Lost Lessons of the 1918 Influenza: The 1920s Working Hypothesis, the Public Health Paradigm, and the Prevention of Deadly Pandemics.

In standard historical accounts, the hyperlethal 1918 flu pandemic was inevitable once a novel influenza virus appeared. However, in the years following the pandemic, it was obvious to distinguished flu experts from around the world that social and environmental conditions interacted with infectious agents and could enhance the virulence of flu germs. On the basis of the timing and geographic pattern of the pandemic, they hypothesized that an "essential cause" of the pandemic's extraordinary lethality was the extreme, prolonged, and industrial-scale overcrowding of US soldiers in World War I, particularly on troopships. This literature synthesis considers research from history, public health, military medicine, veterinary science, molecular genetics, virology, immunology, and epidemiology. Arguments against the hypothesis do not provide disconfirming evidence. Overall, the findings are consistent with an immunologically similar virus varying in virulence in response to war-related conditions. The enhancement-of-virulence hypothesis deserves to be included in the history of the pandemic and the war. These lost lessons of 1918 point to possibilities for blocking the transformation of innocuous infections into deadly disasters and are relevant beyond influenza for diseases like COVID-19. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(10):1454-1464. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306976).

For the flaring up of the flu: The nurses of the Maggiore Hospital in Milan hit by the Spanish fever.

In the last year of the Great War, Italy was also hit by the Spanish flu. The Civic Hospitals faced a deadly disaster with insufficient resources. All the heavy workload fell on the female nursing staff, who were the only ones able ensure the continuity of the hospital services. This study aimed to explore the impact of the influenza on the health of the nurses at the Maggiore Hospital in Milan during the second and third epidemic waves. Historical research was conducted between February and May 2020. Primary sources were retrieved from the historical archives of the Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico and the daily newspaper Corriere della Sera. In the autumn of 1918, the Maggiore Hospital in Milan changed its organization to hospitalise patients affected by the influenza pandemic. Although the hospital managers wanted to protect their healthcare staff from the risks of contagion by means of prophylaxis rules, 388 lay nurses and 80 religious sister nurses were affected by this insidious disease. The second and third waves of the pandemic claimed 25 victims of duty. Remembered for their altruism and spirit of abnegation, the hospital community honoured their sacrifice, and the citizens expressed their gratitude.

A Centenary Tale of Two Pandemics: The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19, Part II.

Both the 1918 influenza pandemic and the 2019‒2021 COVID-19 pandemic are among the most disastrous infectious disease emergences of modern times. In addition to similarities in their clinical, pathological, and epidemiological features, the two pandemics, separated by more than a century, were each met with essentially the same, or very similar, public health responses, and elicited research efforts to control them with vaccines, therapeutics, and other medical approaches. Both pandemics had lasting, if at times invisible, psychosocial effects related to loss and hardship. In considering these two deadly pandemics, we ask: what lessons have we learned over the span of a century, and how are we applying those lessons to the challenges of COVID-19?

Pandemics throughout the centuries.

Pandemics have ravished the globe periodically, often associated with war, at times commencing as fever and rash, beginning in recorded history in the crowded walled city of Athens during the Peloponnesian War as described in great detail by the Athenian historian and military general Thucydides in 430 BCE. As the world now faces the first major pandemic of the 21st century, we focus on the "plague" commencing in Athens in 430 BCE and the 2 pandemics of the more recent century, which killed more than one million, the Spanish flu of 1918 and the Asian flu of 1957. The latter linked with successful vaccine development thanks to the heroic efforts of microbiologist Maurice Hilleman. We now look back and then forward to the viral infection coronavirus disease 2019 now devastating the world.

Precedent for the Present: Neurosurgery During the 1918 Wartime Influenza Pandemic.

In the early twentieth century, early neurosurgical pioneers marked their claims in the specialty during the combined threats of the Spanish influenza and World War I. Their stories, intimately connected, demonstrate personal and professional losses in the backdrop of overarching perseverance to achieve that which allowed neurosurgery to evolve into modernity. Today, as global order adapts to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-COVID-19) pandemic, their stories provide an opportunity for reflection as we carve our way forward as a specialty.

Imagination and remembrance: what role should historical epidemiology play in a world bewitched by mathematical modelling of COVID-19 and other epidemics?

Although every emerging infectious disease occurs in a unique context, the behaviour of previous pandemics offers an insight into the medium- and long-term outcomes of the current threat. Where an informative historical analogue exists, epidemiologists and policymakers should consider how the insights of the past can inform current forecasts and responses.

A Centenary Tale of Two Pandemics: The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19, Part I.

Separated by a century, the influenza pandemic of 1918 and the COVID-19 pandemic of 2019-2021 are among the most disastrous infectious disease emergences of modern times. Although caused by unrelated viruses, the two pandemics are nevertheless similar in their clinical, pathological, and epidemiological features, and in the civic, public health, and medical responses to combat them. Comparing and contrasting the two pandemics, we consider what lessons we have learned over the span of a century and how we are applying those lessons to the challenges of COVID-19.

The origins of viral infection sleuth.

The events of the past year have underscored the serious and rapid threat that emerging viruses pose to global health. However, much of the rapid progress in understanding and combating SARS-CoV-2 was made possible because of the decades of important groundwork laid from researchers studying other emergent infectious diseases. The 2021 John Dirks Canada Gairdner Global Health award recognizes the contributions of Joseph Sriyal Malik Peiris and Yi Guan toward understanding the origins and options for control of newly emerging infectious disease outbreaks in Asia, notably zoonotic influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Cell's Nicole Neuman corresponded with Yi Guan about his path to becoming a viral infection sleuth and the challenges of understanding emerging pathogens and their origins. Excerpts of their exchange are included here.

Influenza-1918.

Editor's note: From its first issue in 1900 through to the present day, AJN has unparalleled archives detailing nurses' work and lives over more than a century. These articles not only chronicle nursing's growth as a profession within the context of the events of the day, but they also reveal prevailing societal attitudes about women, health care, and human rights. Today's nursing school curricula rarely include nursing's history, but it's a history worth knowing. To this end, From the AJN Archives highlights articles selected to fit today's topics and times. This month's article is by public health expert Dorothy Deming, whose many roles over her long career included director of the Visiting Nurse Association in Holyoke, Massachusetts; editor of Public Health Nursing; and author of the Penny Marsh: Public Health Nurse series for young adult readers. In her October 1957 AJN article, Deming recalls her experiences as a nursing student in New York City during the 1918 influenza pandemic. She and a classmate managed a 32-bed women's influenza unit through 12-hour night shifts, a "baptism of fire for a young nurse," she writes. Deming describes shifts that sound eerily familiar given today's COVID-19 pandemic: overcrowded units, staff shortages, patients whose condition could change "in split seconds," and the emotional impact of working under these conditions. For more on COVID-19 in this issue, see "Standardizing the Accommodations Process for Health Care Workers During COVID-19."-Betsy Todd, MPH, RN.

Mortality of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Sweden in Relation to Previous Severe Disease Outbreaks.

Influenza viruses have caused disease outbreaks in human societies for a long time. Influenza often has rapid onset and relatively short duration, both in the individual and in the population. The case fatality rate varies for different strains of the virus, as do the effects on total mortality. Outbreaks related to coronavirus infections have recently become a global concern but much less is known about the dynamics of these outbreaks and their effects on mortality. In this work, disease outbreaks in Sweden, in the time period of 1860-2020, are characterized and compared to the currently ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. The focus is on outbreaks with a sharp increase in all-cause mortality. Outbreak onset is defined as the time point when death counts start to increase consistently for a period of at least 10 days. The duration of the outbreak is defined as the time period in which mortality rates are elevated. Excess mortality is estimated by standard methods. In total there were 15 outbreaks detected in the time period, the first 14 were likely caused by influenza virus infections, the last by SARS-CoV-2. The mortality dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is shown to be similar to outbreaks due to influenza virus, and in terms of the number of excess deaths, it is the worst outbreak in Sweden since the "Spanish flu" of 1918-1919.

Pandemics in New South Wales prisons: the more things change .

BACKGROUND: The current COVID-19 pandemic is not the first time New South Wales prisons have faced contagion. This paper examines the current responses in New South Wales prisons to the threat of COVID-19 to prisoner health, by contrasting contemporary activities with actions and policy developed during two historical epidemics: the influenza epidemic of 1860 and pandemic of 1919. METHOD: Epidemiological information relating to cases of disease in NSW prisons during the 1860 and 1919 influenza epidemics was obtained from the Comptroller-General's reports for the specific outbreak years and for the preceding and succeeding five-year periods. Additional archival sources such as digitised newspaper reports and articles available through the National Library of Australia were analysed for closer detail. The management of these outbreaks was compared to current strategies to mitigate against risk from the COVID-19 pandemic in the NSW prison system. RESULTS: Interesting similarities were discovered in relation to the management of the historic influenza outbreaks in NSW prisons and in the management of the current COVID-19 pandemic. An outbreak of influenza in mid-1860 impacted seven penal institutions in Sydney and Parramatta. Infection rates at these institutions were between 3.1% and 100%; the mean rate was 41.8%. The public health measures employed at the time included allowing 'air circulation freely night and day', and treatments that were 'tonical and stimulatory'. DISCUSSION: While the past 100 or more years have brought huge progress in scientific knowledge, public health approaches remain the mainstay of outbreak management in prisons; and, as in 1919, the opportunity for Australia to observe the rest of the world and plan for action has not been wasted. Prisons pose a potential risk for pandemic spread but they also present a unique opportunity for reducing disease risk by ironic virtue of the 'separate system' that was recognised even 100 years ago as characteristic of these institutions.

Public Health Interventions, Epidemic Growth, and Regional Variation of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Outbreak in a Swiss Canton and Its Greater Regions.

Public health interventions implemented during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are based on experience gained from past pandemics. The 1918 influenza pandemic is the most extensively researched historical influenza outbreak. All 9335 reports available in the State Archives on 121 152 cases of influenza-like illness from the canton of Bern from 473 of 497 municipalities (95.2%) were collected; the cases were registered between 30 June 1918 and 30 June 1919. The overall incidence rates of newly registered cases per week for the 9 greater regions of Bern for both the first and second waves of the pandemic were calculated. Relative incidence rate ratios (RIRRs) were calculated to estimate the change in the slope of incidence curves associated with public health interventions. During the first wave, school closures (RIRR, 0.16 [95% CI, 0.15 to 0.17]) and restrictions of mass gatherings (RIRR, 0.57 [CI, 0.54 to 0.61]) were associated with a deceleration of epidemic growth. During the second wave, in autumn 1918, cantonal authorities initially reacted hesitantly and delegated the responsibility to enact interventions to municipal authorities, which was associated with a lack of containment of the second wave. A premature relaxation of restrictions on mass gatherings was associated with a resurgence of the epidemic (RIRR, 1.18 [CI, 1.12 to 1.25]). Strikingly similar patterns were found in the management of the COVID-19 outbreak in Switzerland, with a considerably higher amplitude and prolonged duration of the second wave and much higher associated rates of hospitalization and mortality.

Social and institutional Reactions to the Influenza Pandemic of 1918-20.

This essay challenges generalizations since the late enlightenment about the effects of epidemics and pandemics on collective mentalities: that from antiquity to the present, epidemics, regardless of the disease, have sparked distrust, social violence, and the blaming of others. By contrast, the pandemic that killed the greatest numbers in world history-the Influenza of 1918-20 - was a pandemic of compassion. No one has yet to uncover this pandemic sparking collective violence or blaming any minorities for spreading the disease anywhere in the globe. The essay then explores the variety of charitable reactions and abnegation that cut across social divisions in communities from theatres of war in Europe to nations thousands of miles from the direct military encounters. Most remarkable, however, was the overflowing volunteerism of women, especially in the US, Canada, and Australia. To explain this widespread charitable reaction, the essay investigates the milieu of the First World War, showing how that context in domestic war settings was not conducive to risking life to aid total strangers, especially when those strangers came from different foreign countries classes, races, or religious faiths. I end with a reflection on the unfolding socio-psychological reactions to Covid-19 from the perspective of 1918-20.

The "saddest repudiation" redux: Structural racism and the unlearned lesson of 1918.

The COVID-19 pandemic reveals how the systems and structures of racism devastate the health and well-being of people of color. The debate is an old one and the lesson we have yet to learn was tragically apparent a century ago during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic. Any history of structural racism in America must begin with the chronicles of African Americans, Native Alaskans, and Indigenous North Americans as they were the originally enslaved and displaced people, subjected to overt and covert policies of oppression ever since. The experiences of Native Alaskans of Bristol Bay Alaska in 1918-1919 present a parallel, illuminating a wrenching example of structural racism that cost lives and impoverished society, then as now. Proven policy solutions exist to remove the structures that produce inequitable health outcomes, but implementing them will require public health officials and policymakers to take multidisciplinary policy actions, to find policy opportunities for change to be made, and, likely, a change in the political environment. The first exists now, the second is afforded because of the current pandemic and the urgent need for policy solutions, and the third is likely coming soon.

Covid-19 in Historical Context: Creating a Practical Past.

Decades ago, in his foundational essay on the early days of the AIDS crisis, medical historian Charles Rosenberg wrote, "epidemics start at a moment in time, proceed on a stage limited in space and duration, following a plot line of increasing revelatory tension, move to a crisis of individual and collective character, then drift toward closure." In the course of epidemics, societies grappled with sudden and unexpected mortality and also returned to fundamental questions about core social values. "Epidemics," Rosenberg wrote, "have always provided occasion for retrospective moral judgment" (Rosenberg 1989, pp. 2, 9). Following Rosenberg's observations, this essay places COVID-19 in the context of epidemic history to examine common issues faced during health crises-moral, political, social, and individual. Each disease crisis unfolds in its own time and place. Yet, despite specific contexts, we can see patterns and recurring concerns in the history of pandemics: (1) pandemics and disease crises in the past, along with public health responses to them, have had implications for civil liberties and government authority; (2) disease crises have acted as a sort of stress test on society, revealing, amplifying or widening existing social fissures and health disparities; (3) pandemics have forced people to cope with uncertain knowledge about the origin and nature of disease, the best sources of therapies, and what the future will hold after the crisis. While historians are not prognosticators, understanding past experience offers new perspectives for the present. The essay concludes by identifying aspects of history relevant to the road ahead.